On Thursday, US markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, leading to a quieter trading session. Despite a modest increase in the US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over trade wars boosted demand for safe-haven assets, causing gold prices to rise gradually and close at $2637.74 per ounce.
Meanwhile, oil prices briefly surged nearly 1% amid escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, and OPEC+ delaying an important meeting. However, the gains were trimmed by the end of the session.
Gold
Despite the mild rise in the US dollar in the thin holiday trading, geopolitical uncertainties and trade war concerns drove demand for safe-haven assets, propelling gold prices upwards. During the European session, gold prices rose by as much as 0.5%. By the close, gold had increased by 0.07%, finishing at $2637.74 per ounce.
According to reports from CCTV News, on November 28, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) claimed to have detected activities at a Hezbollah facility in southern Lebanon. The IDF launched an airstrike against the facility, which had previously been used to store medium-range rockets. The IDF also stated that it would remain stationed in southern Lebanon to actively counter any violations of the ceasefire agreement.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Russian President Putin said on November 28 that Russia’s large-scale strikes on Ukraine were in response to Ukraine’s use of Western missile systems to attack Russian territory. Earlier in the day, Ukraine had reported that its energy infrastructure was under attack by Russian forces.
The rise in geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. WisdomTree’s Chief Macro Economist, Aneeka Gupta, noted that despite the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel’s retaliatory actions have kept tensions high, further fueling concerns.
Additionally, market participants are closely monitoring the tariff plans of US President-elect Trump. On one hand, the uncertainty surrounding these tariffs could heighten risk concerns and boost safe-haven demand, thus supporting gold prices.
On the other hand, Trump’s tariff plans could be seen as a potential inflationary driver, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to slow its rate cuts, limiting gold’s potential for further gains.
Thursday’s session was the day after Thanksgiving, known as “Black Friday” in the US, and historical trends suggest that volatility tends to be slightly higher than on Thanksgiving Day itself. Investors should remain alert to the possibility of significant price swings.
Gold Technical Analysis:
From a technical perspective, gold successfully broke above $2640 during the European session, reaching as high as $2655. While short-term market conditions are fluctuating, the larger downtrend indicated by the significant bearish candle on the daily chart suggests a bearish bias.
The price later saw a pullback, and the key resistance level to watch is around $2658, while support is seen at $2630. Traders should observe these levels to assess whether the gold market is experiencing a short-term rebound or a potential trend reversal.
Today’s Focus:
- For today’s trading, it is suggested to consider selling on rallies and buying on pullbacks.
- Resistance levels: 2650-2655
- Support levels: 2625-2620
Oil
On Thursday, oil prices rose during the session, briefly climbing nearly 1% before narrowing the gains as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah flared up. At the same time, OPEC+ announced a delay in its crucial meeting.
By the close, WTI crude oil futures for January delivery rose by 0.23%, closing at $68.88 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures for January gained 0.53%, finishing at $72.68 per barrel.
OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Thursday that the group is discussing the possibility of delaying its planned oil production increase from January 2025 to the first quarter of 2025. More discussions will take place before a policy meeting scheduled for December 5.
OPEC+ confirmed the delay, with its secretariat stating that the postponement was due to the scheduling of a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting in Kuwait on December 1, where several key ministers would attend. In the past, OPEC+ has also delayed meetings when more time was needed to reach an agreement.
Commodity analyst Rory Johnston of Commodity Context noted, “The chances of announcing an increase in production at this meeting are low.” Oil prices have already largely priced in the delay, and DBS Bank’s Suvro Sarkar remarked, “The only question is whether the delay will be for one month, three months, or even longer.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil supply to exceed demand by over 1 million barrels per day by 2025, assuming OPEC+ continues its current production cuts. Investment banks have been cautious with their price forecasts for 2025.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict the average price of Brent crude at $76 per barrel, while JPMorgan is more pessimistic, forecasting $73 per barrel.
Today, there is limited economic data, and investors should continue to focus on geopolitical developments and any updates from the OPEC+ meeting.
Oil Technical Analysis:
From a technical standpoint, oil prices initially opened at $69 per barrel but pulled back to $68.68 before rising again, reaching a high of $69.48.
However, the price quickly retreated and closed at $68.89, forming a candlestick with a longer lower shadow than upper shadow. This suggests that oil prices may continue to face downward pressure.
Today’s Focus:
- For today’s trading, it is suggested to consider selling on rallies and buying on pullbacks.
- Resistance levels: 70.0-70.5
- Support levels: 67.5-67.0
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Disclaimer
This information contained in this blog is for general reference only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or an invitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. It does not consider any specific recipient’s investment objectives or financial situation. Past performance references are not reliable indicators of future performance. Doo Prime and its affiliates make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of this information and accept no liability for any losses or damages resulting from its use or from any investments made based on it.
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